Nuclear Learning in South Asia : The Levels of Analysis (RCSS Policy Studies: 57)

Stable nuclear deterrence may not last forever. However, in order to try and ensure that it does, states will have to learn from their experiences and those of others. Technological advancements in India and Pakistan, as well as their ballistic/cruise missile proliferation, nuclear postures, strategic doctrines, etc., all add complexity to this troubled nuclear relationship. This monograph studies the nuclear learning that has taken place in both countries and explores whether stable deterrence structures can emerge in South Asia. It examines the process of learning through three levels of analysis, individual, domestic, and international/structural. Some of the questions this research examines involve general questions about learning and foreign policy explored in the nuclear context: who does the learning? What has been learnt? Did new knowledge develop through the shared experiences of crisis and war? How and under what conditions did the  learning take place? Did the learning have any policy outcomes?

This monograph traces the South Asian experience with nuclear weapons from the period of ‘recessed deterrence’ in the 1980s to the various crises under the nuclear umbrella that have followed since. It makes a case for understanding nuclear learning not only through the prism of experience vis-à-vis each other but also through the collective experience of interacting with the NPT regime at the international level. The authors are optimistic in suggesting that nuclear learning can lead to nuclear wisdom and critically inform the road map of a path towards Mutually Assured Stability. (jacket)