S-53 : Peace and Stability in Afghanistan : The Way Ahead

Even after almost eight years of international communitys efforts in Afghanistan the instability and turbulence in Afghanistan has increased rather than abated. Not only has Afghanistan seen ever-increasing levels of violence and loss of life the virus of instability and culture of violence has also spread across the Durand line with hardly any silver line on the horizon. A deadly insurgency, higher opium production, increasing civilian casualties, rampant corruption, an unstable neighbourhood and an uncertain political future remain the defining features of the complex and combustible situation that obtains in Afghanistan.

Further, the presence of safe havens in Pakistans lawless frontier regions have played a seminal role in sustaining the insurgency in Afghanistan and fuelling instability in Pakistan, thus making it impossible to visualize a solution to the Afghan quagmire in isolation.

Given the above background what could be alternative future scenarios in Afghanistan say in next 4 to 5 years time and 8 to 10 years time keeping in mind the trends and drivers and possible triggers? Based on the emerging scenarios what should be the international communitys policy and strategy choices to ensure a favourable outcome? A broad range of critical issues affecting the Afghanistan environment need to be examined before a determination as to how to proceed further can be made.

Broadly, this book, based on the seminar on Peace and Stability in Afghanistan and The Way Ahead is built around four themes of security, governance, development and examination of likely future scenarios. The book offers recommendations for policy and strategy choices, which can be made now so as to move towards a better and brighter future for Afghanistan and in effect for rest of the international community.